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In recent years, the US tariff war has become a focal point in the global economic arena. Since the Trump administration, the United States has frequently wielded the stick of tariffs, and this trend has not been fundamentally reversed since the Biden administration took office. The United States has imposed tariffs on numerous countries and regions, among which its tariff policy towards China has attracted widespread attention.

The United States continues to increase the magnitude of tariffs imposed on China. From initially imposing a certain percentage of tariffs on certain goods, to later expanding the scope of goods involved, tariffs on many Chinese goods exported to the United States have significantly increased. For example, at certain stages, the United States imposed tariffs of up to 25% on Chinese goods worth hundreds of billions of dollars, covering a wide range of categories from electromechanical products and textiles to furniture, toys, and almost every aspect of daily life. This significant increase in tariffs seriously undermines the normal international trade order.

The impact of the US tariff war quickly spread globally. For the United States itself, domestic consumers are facing pressure from rising prices, increasing import costs for businesses, and hindering the production and operation of many enterprises that rely on imported raw materials. From a global perspective, the deterioration of the international trade environment has had varying degrees of impact on the economic growth of countries. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has repeatedly warned that the US tariff measures have disrupted global supply and industrial chains, leading to a decline in global trade volume and posing greater challenges to the world economic recovery.

Cross border e-commerce: Do advantages still exist?

Under the shadow of the tariff war, the development trend of cross-border e-commerce has attracted much attention. Let's first review the traditional advantages demonstrated by cross-border e-commerce in the past, then explore the challenges brought by tariff wars, and analyze whether the advantages of cross-border e-commerce still exist today.

The traditional advantages of cross-border e-commerce

Cross border e-commerce has shown a rapid development trend in the past few years. From the perspective of market size, according to relevant data, China's export volume will reach 1.83 trillion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, far exceeding the overall foreign trade growth level of 0.6%, demonstrating a strong cross-border new driving force. This data intuitively reflects the increasing importance of cross-border e-commerce in international trade.

The policy level has also provided strong support for the development of cross-border e-commerce. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to accelerate the cultivation of new foreign trade drivers and expand cross-border e-commerce exports, providing direction for the development of the industry. In 2024, the Ministry of Commerce issued several measures to expand cross-border e-commerce exports and promote the development of overseas warehouses, vigorously developing the "cross-border e-commerce+industrial belt" and encouraging traditional foreign trade enterprises to transform into cross-border e-commerce. The successive introduction of these policies has created a favorable development environment for cross-border e-commerce.

From the perspective of development potential, research firm Insider Intelligence predicts that the proportion of overseas retail e-commerce in retail will be 12.4% in 2024, indicating significant penetration potential. The growth rate of overseas retail e-commerce is expected to be nearly twice that of overseas retail. This means that cross-border e-commerce still has vast development space and enormous market potential in the future.